Property Report

Rothesay Bay's market trajectory reflects resilience in Auckland's North Shore, with the property's CV advancing from $1.23 million in 2017 to $1.68 million in 2024, equating to roughly 4.5% annual growth amid a broader downturn where values have fallen about 20% from peaks. Recent sales history shows rateable values peaking at $1.78 million in 2021 before adjusting to $1.675 million in 2024, while comparables like 2/68 Beulah Avenue at $895,000 and 16 Braemar Road at $2.45 million illustrate segmented demand. The estimated $1.67 million price positions it competitively, buoyed by coastal appeal and school zones, though short-term volatility from economic cooling tempers immediate upside. The 1950 build era defines maintenance considerations, with 173m² floor area on 819m² land offering solid foundations but exposing risks from outdated materials like potential asbestos or poor insulation. No sales since 2001 at $308,000 suggest prolonged ownership, possibly deferring updates, while conflicting data on 5 bedrooms/3 bathrooms versus 4/2 underscores the need for verification. Capex for weathertightness or seismic retrofits could reach $50,000-$100,000, yet the generous site supports extensions without major zoning hurdles. Financing scenarios hinge on the 20% deposit and 5% interest over 30 years, yielding $4,361 fortnightly payments on a $1.336 million loan, or approximately $9,450 monthly, manageable for households above $150,000 income. Annual holding costs, including rates around $3,500 and maintenance $5,000, add pressure in a high-rate environment, with investor yields at 3-4% from $800-$900 weekly rent proving marginal without appreciation. Sensitivity to OCR changes at 5.5% highlights the need for buffers against 10-15% rate hikes. Buyer fit favors established families in the Rangitoto zone, where 5 bedrooms accommodate growth, or renovators eyeing the land's potential over urban intensity. First-home buyers face LVR barriers at $1.67 million, while downsizers value the 2 parking spaces and beach proximity. Investors may prioritize the 819m² for holding income, though data inconsistencies demand clarity to confirm suitability for 4-6 occupants. Risk mitigations focus on due diligence: a $800-$1,200 building inspection addresses medium weathertightness and high age-related issues, while LIM review clarifies unknown compliance and low flood risks. Medium liquefaction in coastal settings warrants geotech checks, and market downturn risks are offset by negotiating below CV. Title searches for easements ensure no hidden encumbrances, balancing medium overall score with proactive steps. Intensification and planning upside remain limited under Residential Single House Zone, capping height at 9m and coverage at 50%, preserving low-density but restricting subdivision unlike mixed zones nearby. The flat 819m² site allows compliant additions up to 60% coverage, potentially boosting value 15% via renovations, though no designations noted. Future coastal path easements pose minor threats, but zoning stability supports long-term equity build. Exit and liquidity benefit from suburb medians of 30-45 days on market, with comparables like 23 Korotaha Terrace at $1.24 million selling swiftly. A 5-year hold could yield 20% growth to $2 million assuming recovery, facilitated by auction processes in buyer-favorable conditions. High turnover and premium positioning enhance resale, though short holds risk 5-10% erosion in downturns. Scenario analysis outlines base case (70% probability) with 3% annual growth to $1.95 million by 2029 via stable economy and minor updates. Upside (20%) from rate cuts or infrastructure like busway expansions lifts to $2.1 million, leveraging land value. Downside (10%) involves prolonged slump or unmitigated hazards dropping to $1.4 million, emphasizing insurance and LIM to navigate triggers like policy shifts.